Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Microsoft publicly releases a general‑purpose desktop operating system based on the Linux kernel before January 1st 2032.

For this market, a “Microsoft desktop Linux OS” must meet all of the following:

• It is developed and branded primarily by Microsoft, including major sub‑brands such as Windows, Azure, or Surface. Co‑branding with hardware partners (e.g. Dell, Lenovo, etc.) is fine as long as Microsoft is clearly the primary OS vendor.

• It is based on the Linux kernel (it can be a custom distro or a derivative of an existing one).

• It is marketed as an operating system for general‑purpose client devices (PCs, laptops, workstations, or similar), not just for servers, containers, routers, switches, IoT devices, or consoles.

• It includes a graphical desktop environment intended for end‑user interactive use (e.g., GNOME, KDE, or a custom Microsoft shell), not just a headless/server build.

• It is publicly available before January 1st 2032 in at least one of these ways:

  • preinstalled as the primary OS on new consumer or business devices, or

  • downloadable by the general public as an installable image (ISO/IMG/etc.) intended to be used as the primary OS on hardware.

“Publicly available” includes preview/beta releases as long as anyone can obtain and install them without NDAs, closed partner programs, or special approval. Merely internal builds or limited partner-only pilots do not count.

Examples that would count (hypothetical)

• “Surface Linux”: a Linux‑based OS that ships as the default operating system on some Surface laptops/desktops and is marketed as such by Microsoft.

• “Azure Linux Desktop”: a Linux distribution with a full desktop environment, downloadable as an ISO and promoted by Microsoft as a workstation/desktop OS for PCs.

Examples that would not count

• Windows Subsystem for Linux (WSL/WSLg) improvements, even if they allow Linux desktop environments to run seamlessly inside Windows. WSL is a Windows feature, not a standalone OS.

• Azure Linux / CBL‑Mariner or similar Microsoft Linux distributions used only as server/cloud/container or appliance OSes with no desktop focus.

• Linux‑based firmware/OSes for routers, switches, game consoles, mixed‑reality devices, or IoT appliances that are not marketed as general‑purpose desktop operating systems.

• A Linux distro primarily created and maintained by a third party (e.g., a vendor- or community-driven distro) that merely bundles Microsoft apps or branding, where Microsoft is clearly not the main OS developer and publisher.

Time and resolution details

• The key moment is when the OS becomes publicly available as defined above, not merely when there are rumors or leaks.

• “Before January 1st 2032” is interpreted as strictly earlier than 2032‑01‑01 00:00:00 UTC, based on the timestamp of the relevant announcement/release or the first date the OS is obtainable by the general public as defined above.

• The market resolves YES if such an OS meets the criteria in time; otherwise it resolves NO shortly after the cutoff.

• If there is ambiguity (e.g., unclear positioning of a new Microsoft Linux product), the resolution will follow the spirit of the criteria: does the product clearly function as a Microsoft‑branded, Linux‑based desktop OS for general‑purpose use? If not clearly, it will default to NO.