Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Ticketmaster permanently ceases operations as a primary commercial ticketing platform prior to January 1, 2030. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

To resolve to YES, the ticketing platform must completely stop selling tickets and permanently shut down its service.

The following scenarios do NOT count as shutting down and will resolve the market to NO:

• Divestiture / Spin-off: If Ticketmaster is divested from Live Nation, sold to another company, or spun off as an independent entity but continues to operate a ticketing service.

• Rebranding: If the platform remains active but is simply renamed, where existing user accounts, venue partnerships, and ticketing infrastructure transition directly to the new brand name.

• Temporary Outages: Temporary website or service suspensions (e.g., due to regulatory halts, cyberattacks, or restructuring) do not qualify unless they result in permanent liquidation or the complete and final abandonment of the business.

Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined by official corporate announcements, SEC filings from Live Nation Entertainment (or its successor entities), or definitive reporting from major financial news outlets such as Bloomberg or Reuters.

Background

In 2024, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) alongside several states filed a major antitrust lawsuit seeking to break up the merger of Live Nation and Ticketmaster. While the DOJ reached a tentative settlement with Live Nation in March 2026—relying on behavioral remedies rather than a structural breakup—33 state attorneys general continued to pursue litigation, securing a federal jury verdict in April 2026 that found Live Nation had operated an unlawful monopoly. Despite intense regulatory pressure and potential structural changes to the live entertainment industry, a complete shutdown of the Ticketmaster ticketing platform itself is distinct from a corporate spin-off or restructuring.