Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, prior to January 1, 2040, an international tribunal, treaty-based international criminal court, or multilateral body formally convenes criminal proceedings or indictments explicitly designated or widely recognized by credible international reporting as a comprehensive tribunal (analogous to the Nuremberg Trials) prosecuting developers, corporate leaders, state officials, or entities for severe, catastrophic, or existential harms resulting from artificial intelligence technology.

For this market to resolve to YES, the proceedings must meet the following conditions:

1. Multilateral/International scope: The tribunal must involve an ad hoc or permanent international or intergovernmental body (such as under the auspices of the United Nations, the International Criminal Court, or an ad hoc coalition of multiple sovereign states), not merely a domestic criminal trial in a single jurisdiction.

2. AI-focused criminal accountability: The core charges or mandate of the tribunal must center on the creation, deployment, or weaponization of AI systems resulting in mass atrocities, crimes against humanity, unconstrained autonomous warfare, or catastrophic harm.

Standard civil liability suits, regulatory enforcement fines, antitrust actions, or standard domestic copyright/privacy litigations do not qualify.

If no such international trial or tribunal has begun proceedings or issued official criminal indictments by 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2039, the market resolves to NO.

Background

The phrase "Nuremberg 2.0" has frequently appeared in discussions among AI ethicists, legal scholars, and existential risk researchers to describe hypothetical future accountability mechanisms for catastrophic outcomes caused by artificial intelligence. Proponents argue that if frontier AI development leads to severe geopolitical destabilization, autonomous mass casualties, or unauthorized catastrophic harm, existing regulatory fines and domestic tort law would be insufficient, necessitating an international criminal framework modeled on the post-World War II Nuremberg Trials.

Currently, international humanitarian law (such as the Geneva Conventions) applies to conventional warfare, and discussions continue within the United Nations regarding lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS). However, no specialized international tribunal or comprehensive criminal statute targeting AI developers or operators currently exists.