Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the Republican Party wins a majority of seats (at least 218 of 435) in the United States House of Representatives in the midterm elections held on November 3, 2026, or otherwise maintains control of the chamber when the 120th Congress is officially convened on January 3, 2027.

This market will resolve to NO if the Democratic Party (or any other non-Republican coalition) wins a majority of seats or otherwise secures control of the chamber.

Key Details:

• Tie-Breaker/Independent Seats: If neither major party wins 218 seats outright due to third-party or independent representatives, control will be determined by which party officially organizes the House and elects the Speaker of the House when the 120th Congress convenes.

• Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined by official election results published by the Clerk of the United States House of Representatives. If official results are delayed or contested, the market may resolve based on a consensus call by major decision desks (e.g., Associated Press, NBC News, CNN, Fox News).

Background

The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026, midway through President Donald Trump’s second term. All 435 voting seats are up for election. Following the 2024 general elections, Republicans held a narrow 220–215 majority in the chamber. The outcome of these midterm races will determine the legislative balance of power and oversight capabilities in the 120th Congress, which is scheduled to be sworn in on January 3, 2027.