Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) is officially elected or appointed as the Minority Leader of the United States House of Representatives at any point before January 1, 2028 (11:59:59 PM ET).

Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

Resolution will be verified using official House records published at House.gov Leadership or reporting from major credible news organizations (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters, The Washington Post).

Clarifications:

• "House Minority Leader" refers specifically to the floor leader of the minority party conference/caucus in the U.S. House of Representatives.

• Being elected to a different leadership post (e.g., Speaker of the House, House Majority Leader, Conference Chair, or Whip) does not satisfy this criterion.

• If the Republican Party holds the majority in the House and Jim Jordan is elected Majority Leader, this resolves to NO unless he also serves as Minority Leader during the specified period.

• Serving as "Acting" Minority Leader counts only if recognized as the official party leader by the House Republican Conference.

Background

The House Minority Leader is elected by the minority party's internal conference via secret ballot during organizational meetings ahead of a new Congress or following a vacancy.

Rep. Jim Jordan previously ran for House Republican Minority Leader in late 2018 following the party's loss of the House majority in the midterms, but was defeated by Kevin McCarthy (159–43). He also launched an unsuccessful bid for Speaker of the House in October 2023 following McCarthy's removal.