Democrat elected Speaker of the House by end of 2026?
2
1kṀ2650
2026
16%
chance

Republicans currently have a narrow majority in the House. However, it's possible that some Republicans will leave, or that Democrats will win some special elections for seats currently held by Republicans. Thus, I think there's some chance that Democrats will have a majority in the House before the next Congress starts (i.e. before January 3, 2027).

This question resolves YES if a Democrat is elected Speaker of the House by the end of 2026. (I think edge cases are unlikely, but: if the House Speaker is a member of the House, then resolution will be based on whether they caucus with the Democrats; otherwise, it'll be based on party registration.)

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