Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2400 UTC, a pandemic (an infectious disease outbreak occurring worldwide or over a very wide area) causes mathematical probability forecasting and formal probabilistic analysis to become entirely extinct and permanently cease to be practiced or documented by humanity.

This market resolves to NO if:

• January 1, 2400 arrives and mathematical probability forecasting is still practiced, taught, or actively utilized by human civilization.

• Mathematical probability forecasting ceases to exist for reasons other than a pandemic (e.g., nuclear warfare, total civilizational collapse unrelated to disease, artificial general intelligence divergence, or voluntary obsolescence).

Edge cases and notes:

• "Mathematical level probabilities forecasting" refers to formal, quantitative forecasting utilizing probability theory, statistical inference, and mathematical models (as opposed to informal, qualitative guesswork).

• Temporary disruptions or localized pauses in forecasting do not qualify; the cessation must be an extinction/permanent end to the discipline caused directly or indirectly by a pandemic.

• If humanity goes extinct due to a pandemic prior to 2400, this market resolves to YES if the market remains functional or can be settled deterministically. If total civilizational extinction makes settlement impossible, standard platform rules apply.

• The creator may refine operational thresholds or consensus measurement methods prior to market close.

Background

Probabilistic forecasting uses formal probability distributions rather than single-point estimates to quantify uncertainty across domains such as meteorology, finance, epidemiology, and geopolitical forecasting. Historical pandemics (such as the 1918 influenza pandemic or COVID-19) have historically spurred the advancement and funding of statistical modeling and epidemiological forecasting rather than eliminating mathematical methodology. Extinction of the entire discipline would require either total civilizational collapse, severe epistemic regress, or the loss of scientific continuity.