Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, before January 1, 2100 (23:59:59 UTC), a global pandemic directly leads to the complete cessation or extinction of quantitative, mathematical probabilistic forecasting (e.g., formal probability theory, Bayesian/frequentist statistical modeling, and quantitative prediction methodologies) as an active field of study or practice.

This market resolves to NO if mathematical probabilistic forecasting continues to be taught, researched, or practiced through December 31, 2099, or if its cessation occurs due to causes other than a pandemic.

Resolution notes:

• "Cease to exist" requires total functional extinction—i.e., no academic institutions, governments, corporations, or research entities actively generate or utilize formal mathematical probabilistic forecasts.

• The disruption must be causally attributed to an infectious disease outbreak / pandemic. If society or civilization collapses due to nuclear war, catastrophic climate events, or artificial general intelligence without a pandemic being the primary driver, this market resolves to NO.

• Because verifying the absolute non-existence of a mathematical practice in extreme disaster scenarios is difficult, resolution will rely on credible surviving historical/scientific consensus or reputable international archives. If the creator cannot establish that the condition occurred by 2100, the market resolves to NO.

Background

Mathematical probability and statistical forecasting underpin modern quantitative decision-making, weather prediction, epidemiology, financial modeling, and demographic projections. The prompt considers an existential or civilizational collapse scenario where an infectious disease outbreak is severe enough to permanently terminate formal probabilistic modeling and quantitative science worldwide before the turn of the 22nd century.