Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if U.S. Senator Adam Schiff serves time in a state or federal prison, correctional facility, or county jail following a criminal conviction at any point prior to January 1, 2030, 00:00 UTC.

For the purposes of this market:

• Incarceration must be the result of a criminal conviction. Pre-trial detention, house arrest, probation, or detention solely for civil contempt will not qualify unless accompanied by a criminal conviction resulting in prison or jail time.

• Official court records, government announcements, or reporting from major news outlets (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters) confirming physical custody in a prison or jail facility will serve as resolution sources.

If Adam Schiff is not incarcerated under these conditions prior to the cutoff date, the market resolves to NO.

Background

Adam Schiff currently serves as a U.S. Senator for California, having taken office in December 2024 after serving in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2001 to 2024. During his time in the House, Schiff served as Chair of the House Intelligence Committee and was the lead House manager during the first impeachment trial of Donald Trump in 2020.

In 2025, federal authorities examined allegations surrounding primary residence designations on loan documents for properties owned by Schiff in California and Maryland. Schiff denied any wrongdoing, stating that lenders were fully aware of his living arrangements. Reporting later in 2025 indicated that federal prosecutors found insufficient evidence to pursue criminal charges. As of late 2026, Schiff has not been charged with or convicted of any crime.