Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if U.S. Representative Ilhan Omar is incarcerated in a federal, state, or local correctional facility serving a criminal sentence or held in pretrial detention following a criminal indictment/charge at any point before January 1, 2030, 11:59:59 PM UTC.

Brief civil disobedience arrests or bookings where she is cited and released within 24 hours without serving a formal custodial sentence will not trigger a YES resolution.

If she has not been incarcerated or remanded into custody under these conditions by the deadline, or in the event of her death prior to any such incarceration, the market will resolve to NO.

Resolution will be verified using official court records, government Department of Corrections rosters (such as the Federal Bureau of Prisons Inmate Locator), or credible reporting from major news outlets (e.g., AP News, Reuters).

Background

Ilhan Omar has served as the U.S. representative for Minnesota's 5th congressional district since 2019. Over her political career, she has been a frequent target of political criticism and ethics complaints—predominantly regarding campaign finance filings, joint tax returns, and consulting payments made by her campaign to a firm co-owned by her husband. While the Minnesota Campaign Finance Board previously ordered reimbursement for certain tax and travel-related issues, no federal criminal charges or indictments have been brought against her.