Dan J. Sullivan has sparked controversy in the US Alaska senate election, with republicans accusing him of being a bad-faith candidate who only entered to split the vote with the similarly named incumbent Dan S. Sullivan. There currently is an attempt by republicans to get him removed from the ballot. Will these attempts succeed?

Alaska Senate race has 2 Dan Sullivans, drawing incumbent's ire | AP News

Alaska investigates US Senate candidate who shares name with incumbent | Reuters

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, on election day of the primary, a candidate who is listed as a Republican and as Dan J. Sullivan, or any reasonable variation of the non-incumbent's current name, is on the primary ballot.

This market will resolve NO if the above criteria is not met, including but not limited to:

• If Dan J. Sullivan is forcibly or willingly removed from the ballot at the time of the election

• If Dan J. Sullivan is listed as anything other than a Republican or similar abbreviation

• If Dan J. Sullivan is forced to appear on the ballot as something other than a reasonable variation of his name

This market is about what happens on primary day. Provisional rulings and other reversible decisions will not be enough to resolve this market.

Minor Technicalities (Subject to Change)

• Reasonable variations of his name include Daniel J. Sullivan, Daniel James Sullivan, Daniel James Sullivan Jr., etc.

• If the primary is cancelled, this market will resolve N/A.

• If incumbent senator Dan S. Sullivan is not on the ballot, this market will resolve N/A.

• Unintentional errors like printing errors on a few ballots will be ignored.

• What is physically on the ballot distributed to voters counts, even if he is legally disqualified after the final ballots have been printed.

• Update 2026-06-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is considering resolving the market based on officially published sample ballots at the ballot printing deadline (June 30th) rather than waiting for primary election day, provided it is clear no further changes to the ballot are planned. The market close date may be adjusted accordingly. However, if there are delays to the printing deadline or ongoing legal challenges, the creator will still wait until everything is fully resolved.

• Update 2026-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Despite the current officially published sample ballot appearing to exclude any party identification for Dan J. Sullivan, the creator will wait at least another week before resolving, due to the unprecedented and legally dubious nature of omitting party identification entirely.

• Update 2026-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The name "Sullivan, Daniel J. Jr." counts as a reasonable variation of Dan J. Sullivan's name. However, if the lack of party identification on the ballot stands, the market would resolve NO, as he would not be listed as a Republican or similar abbreviation.