Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if OpenAI publicly releases its GPT-5 foundation model before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Because OpenAI officially released GPT-5 on August 7, 2025, this market is already satisfied and resolves to YES.

If the market creator intended to track a future, unreleased major model version (such as GPT-6) rather than GPT-5, they should edit the title and resolution criteria accordingly. Otherwise, the market resolves to YES based on the historical August 2025 release.

Background

OpenAI officially launched GPT-5 on August 7, 2025. The model was introduced as a unified system combining advanced reasoning and multimodal capabilities, and was made available to ChatGPT Plus/Pro users as well as via the OpenAI API. OpenAI has since continued to iterate on the GPT-5 architecture, releasing GPT-5.5 on April 23, 2026, and the GPT-5.6 series (Sol, Terra, and Luna) on July 9, 2026. Because the public release of GPT-5 has already occurred, the conditions for a "YES" resolution have been fully met.

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