from a substack: "Our forecasters think there’s a 7% probability (5% to 8%) that OpenAI will have to “de-deploy” GPT-5.5, making it unavailable to the general public, before 2027." It's related to GPT 5.5 being as good as Mythos at cyber per UK AISI and Mythos being held back.
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Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if OpenAI officially announces or executes a policy to remove, disable, or restrict public access to a model specifically branded or recognized by OpenAI as "GPT-5.5," such that it is no longer available for use by the general public (e.g., via ChatGPT or API), at any point before January 1, 2027.

The market resolves to NO if OpenAI does not "de-deploy" such a model before this date, or if no model branded as "GPT-5.5" is released to the general public by OpenAI prior to January 1, 2027. Official announcements from OpenAI via their blog, press releases, or official social media channels will be the primary sources for resolution.

Background

This market is based on speculative forecasting regarding the potential for OpenAI to withhold or withdraw future advanced AI models due to safety, security, or regulatory concerns. The prompt references discussions surrounding the UK Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute (AISI) evaluations and comparisons to other models (e.g., "Mythos"). Traders may wish to monitor OpenAI’s official release communications and statements regarding the safety protocols and public availability of their future model iterations.