Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Olivia Rodrigo releases a single that debuts at number one on the Billboard Hot 100 chart at any point during 2026. Resolution will be determined by checking the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week the single debuts. If no single debuts at number one in 2026, the market resolves NO.

Background

Olivia Rodrigo has released three Billboard Hot 100 number-one singles: "Drivers License" debuted at number one in January 2021 and stayed there for eight consecutive weeks, "Good 4 U" was her second chart-topper, and "Vampire" peaked at number one in 2023. Rodrigo waited around two years between the release of Sour and Guts, and Guts was released in September 2023. In an interview after her recent American Express Performance, Rodrigo teased that "2026 is going to be a busy year for me", and she hinted she has been recording in November 2025.

Considerations

If she wants to be submitted for the next Grammy Awards in 2027, she'll have to have released the project in full before 31 August 2026, which creates a potential deadline for album release but does not guarantee a single will debut at number one.