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Is OP , MIA? (Inactive for a week min.)
National Weather Service confirms a tornado hit Mansfield Friday morning
https://www.4029tv.com/article/mansfield-arkansas-tornado/44547321
These guys should be out today in the US chasing.
https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu / https://www.youtube.com/@ReedTimmerWx
https://twitter.com/aaronjayjack / https://www.youtube.com/@AaronJayjack
For the BEST real-time alerts from NWS that are deemed super serious:
https://twitter.com/ryanhallyall / https://www.youtube.com/@RyanHallYall
@SirCryptomind I think a random report on twitter/vk be more likely than a report from a group of tornado chasers..
Quickly went through the forecasts and found nothing new (same for my simple WMO parser -- don't know if CAPS reports include tornadoes usually or not as I've yet to get a positive result).
I won't have time to update tomorrow so I am betting now. Hopefully there won't be a waterspout or random tornado in Europe tomorrow, as there are plentiful reports in that area recently. I never had a chance to download incorporate a European database (SWD) into the statistics... so if it resolves to a European tornado I won't feel bad..
Deleted
If you count unrated tornadoes and/or waterspouts than the probabilities drastically increase, Here is a graph for all European Tornadoes in their database: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-number-of-tornadoes-reported-in-each-month-of-the-year-Tornadoes-of-which-the-date_fig4_266680891
Some notable comments from the article: "No fewer than 278 tornadoes over land and an additional 139 waterspout events (comprising 205 waterspouts, i.e., 483 in total), have been reported across Europe on average each year"
"only 7 out of 39 European weather services have a procedure to warn for tornadoes (Rauhala and Schultz 2009)"
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I don't know what the "July 14" corresponds to, since there are local reports of the tornado that may have different times (the tornado time and the report time that is possibly later) and the report itself which may be from a different time zone where the tornado happened. All of which is respective to "July 14" (news reports dated with 'July 14' or reports that are dated with respect to a fixed timespan such as July 14 00:00:00-23:59:59 UTC)? Can't update well short-term without knowing this.
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Looking at forecasts (July 12)... Short term this is a lot of effort to find sources, then to parse and interpret them; I have also a parser for the WMO CAP data but am unable to test it well in this short time:
The data was gathered mostly 12 hours ago (it is stale as it took too long to finish):
US (NWS):
Convective Outlook (2day, 3day):
~2% Tornado risk for 8am Thursday to 8am Friday (Covering mostly Ohio)
~15% Severe weather risk for 8am Friday to 8am Saturday (Covering mostly southern Kansas)
Note: this is not "Tornado risk", but the combined risk of Tornado/Wind/Hail (so it is an over-estimate).
Given the higher probability for severe weather on Kansas, looking at the NWS discussions on the area forecast offices, the Wichita now has a new forecast discussion that does not include a mention of tornados. Neither does the Dodge City forecast discussion.
Canada:
I could not find Canada convective outlooks for 3 days out. I'll update tomorrow (https://umanitoba.ca/environment/envirogeog/weather/conv_otlk/)
Europe:
Could not find a simple official convective outlook website from ECMWF or a European website in general.
I did find these two products from other places (weather.us which has tornado prediction using ECMWF data I assume):
https://weather.us/model-charts/swisshd-ecmwf/europe/sign-tornado-param/20230714-0500z.html
This is also difficult to read (it's not cumulative across areas, you have to zoom in) and interpret (https://www.weather.gov/fwd/convectiveparameterssigtor) in terms of probabilities.
There is also an experimental forecast that includes tornadoes in a combined probability, but only 24 hours out.
Australia:
They have a national warnings page at: http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings/index.shtml
A severe weather warning for Victoria from late Thursday afternoon, however there is nothing to suggest the potential of tornadoes, and the sustained wind speeds are relatively low (50-60 km/h). I could not find a specific convective outlook product like the US/Canada has.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV21037.shtml
India:
I could not find a good source specifically for convective outlooks/severe weather storms. The weather bulletin I did find for India did not mention any warnings that suggest tornado risk for the next 2 days (https://mausam.imd.gov.in/responsive/all_india_forcast_bulletin.php)
Russia:
The weather bulletin for Russia (https://meteoinfo.ru/egmb) does not suggest conditions favorable for Tornadoes for July 14. There is not a good summary for the entire federation, and I could not find a convective outlook product (the web page is not simplified at all and has all the forecasts for each area.)
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Looking at recent tornado reports:
Looking at the ESWD ( https://eswd.eu/cgi-bin/eswd.cgi ) there have been multiple waterspouts reported on several days for the last week (5 days out of the last 7 days) for the Black Sea (bordering Russia). Unfortunately since it is over the water I believe the tornado forecasts don't seem to cover this (at least I could not find any), so I can't use this recent activity for predictions. If the question resolves YES, it may be from this area.
@parhizj
No indicators I could find in forecasts that reflects the market 85% tornado potential, but since there isn't coverage for tornado forecasting of the whole world, excluding US, I have to rely mostly on base rates (unless there is a specific forecast/warning for tornadoes) relying my previous analysis for the US I think the market % is slightly too high given I could find nothing in current forecasts, so I am increasing my NO bet.
US:
NWS convective outlook shows low chance of tornadoes for the July 14th: 5% for Thursday afternoon to Friday morning, <2% for rest of Friday-Saturday.
Europe:
Nothing clearly suggestive for tornadoes in the discussion for Friday (Thursday night only): https://www.estofex.org/
Small area of higher STP for Manoppello, Italy Friday Morning: https://weather.us/model-charts/swisshd-ecmwf/abruzzo/sign-tornado-param/20230714-1200z.html
I can't interpret this but this seems unlikely comparing it from this other source the wind speeds for the lower atmosphere look too low (as does looking at hodographs from ECMWF forecasts): https://www.isac.cnr.it/dinamica/projects/forecasts/bolam/#
Australia:
Nothing suggestive in the national warnings page: high wind for certain regions, but found a new source that has CAPE data, but the maximum values look relatively low (<1500) for Friday tornado potential:
https://stormcast.com.au/stormcast.html?ops=gfs:2023071300:2023071315:aus:cape:null:0#sc
Canada: Nothing yet suggesting tornadoes in the forecast at (although it doesn't go out far enough for all regions): https://umanitoba.ca/environment/envirogeog/weather/conv_otlk/
No watches/warnings/alerts for tornados either in
India: Nothing on their bulletin or that I could find otherwise.
Russia: Nothing on their bulletin.
I've bet to adjust the market downwards to my estimated probability of ~77%
See my (possibly dodgy) analysis:
https://github.com/JRPdata/torn/tree/main
I'll try to update my bet 12-24 hours prior to July 14 from 24 hour forecasts, and also the day of monitoring current news events.
@parhizj Interesting analysis!
You mention that 75% of all tornadoes worldwide are in the US. Do you have a source for that?