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@Dougb93f
> while much about the hospital explosion remains unclear, the available evidence points toward a Palestinian rocket, not an Israeli airstrike, as the more likely cause.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/03/briefing/gaza-hospital-explosion.html
Does that count as NYT concluding a responsible party?

@Shump https://manifold.markets/Dougb93f/who-bombed-alahli-arab-hospital-in#aErP2s6uaMVYLdAl7jsH

I’ll note that no one is saying Hamas launched the rocket, but rather that Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) did.

@BenjaminShindel Pretty sure most reports are saying this. Although there have been some saying it was a PLJ missile that was intercepted by a Israel ordinance.

Either way I think the whole hospital is blown tf out of proportion.

What will you consider authoritative enough for resolving?

@CamillePerrin If either of the following happen the question will be resolved.

1. Both Hamas and Israel announce the same conclusion

2. It is confirmed by and or reported in the New York Times

@Dougb93f don't know about this really, but I heard I think it was on Breaking Points, that NYT might drag their heels in reporting, or not report at all, if they can't verify it. So this may not get any resolution from the two sources you suggest here.

@Dougb93f if neither Israel nor Hamas jointly agree publicly, or the NYT just quietly ignores making a judgement forever, will you resolve to the option "No Resolution"?

@VAPOR I feel like if there is a resounding conclusion to this event based on evidence, the NYT will at least report about it, otherwise they risk their standing globally as a credible worldwide source of news.

I do agree that it is possible that the fog of war may end up being a real element here though. I can imagine a situation where the NYT may be put in a position where, even if they find the truth, they may be under certain pressure to, as you say, "drag their feet" in reporting that truth.

It's up to you, but that belief, obviously tied to how long the "feet dragging" would continue can be captured in the bet of no resolution by 01.01.2024

@VAPOR If Israel and Hamas do not come to the same conclusion publicly by 01.01.2024, and the NYT does not post a report concluding responsible party by 01.01.2024 this will resolve as No resolution by 01.01.2024

@Dougb93f that's confirmed then, no resolution was worth more than it looked like due to the NYT basically walking back the original bias but stopping short since of claiming responsibility by anyone, because nobody will claim responsibility.

@VAPORWell........ I mean hindsight is 20/20. Not like this market was as electric as Congressman Mike Johnson was the last week or so.

Would PIJ resolve as other?

@sarius Yes PIJ would resolve as other