NYT: “It sounded what could be gun shots interrupted Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania. Trump was hurried off the stage and appeared to be bleeding by his ear.”
Resolves YES if more than one person shot at Trump at his rally on July 13th.
NOTE #1: I will share my reasoning in advance of my resolution so traders have an opportunity to object. If I am unsure on the closing date or after hearing trader's objections, I would extend the deadline to allow more evidence to arrive.
NOTE #2: If I am unsure AND it is highly unlikely new evidence will arrive, I would decide between resolving based on a Keynesian beauty contest (resolves to current % correcting for any market manipulation e.g. one person betting a lot at the last second to move the market) OR resolving based on an external forecast (e.g. another prediction market such as Metaculus or Polymarket, a poll of Manifold users, or asking an AI forecaster). Please share in the comments if you think KBC or one of these external forecast options would be better. Planning to update NOTE #2 once I decide which option is better for the health of the market.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ255 | |
2 | Ṁ232 | |
3 | Ṁ143 | |
4 | Ṁ134 | |
5 | Ṁ128 |
@traders Planning to resolve to NO unless there are any objections in the next 20 hours. All news stories that I have seen only mention one shooter.
Just to clarify, @traders Planning to resolve to NO unless there are any objections in the next 20 hours. All news stories that I have seen only mention one shooter.