
Resolves to my credence in 2030.
"The infectious hypothesis proposes that a pathogen (virus, bacteria, prion, etc.) is the root cause of AD [2]. The hypothesis is supported by evidence that some pathogens, such as herpesviruses and certain bacterial species, are found more commonly in AD patients." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7660461/#:~:text=The%20infectious%20hypothesis%20proposes%20that,more%20commonly%20in%20AD%20patients.
Close date updated to 2030-01-01 4:59 am
Feb 9, 8:05am: Is a pathogen (virus, bacteria, prion, etc.) the root cause of Alzheimer's disease? → Is a pathogen (virus, bacteria, prion, etc.) a root cause of Alzheimer's disease?
Feb 9, 8:11am: Is a pathogen (virus, bacteria, prion, etc.) a root cause of Alzheimer's disease? → Does any pathogen (virus, bacteria, prion, etc.) cause Alzheimer's disease?
People are also trading
What if Alzheimers disease ends up being like Me/CFS?
The majority of cases is triggered by viral/bacterial infections, but a small minority can be triggered by traumatic injury or extended physical stress.
Imagine writing this paper and not going much deeper into the “flat line” (can’t imagine, nor can anyone who’s good with statistics or data in any capacity)
For women only:

Abysmal statistics; incomplete literature
But probably true (shingles vax has been shown to inhibit beta h-viruses more generally; and female brains already show very different responses to dementia risk factors)
Not sure why it takes four people to write a mediocre paper (epidemiology has the talent depth of the average car wash ) but conclusions look sound
@LachlanMunro Relevant link from that Tweet: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.05.23.23290253v1
Basically they compared people born a week before versus a week after a cutoff date for eligibility for that vaccine, and found a 20%-ish reduction in dementia diagnosis in the latter group. (Still pending peer review.)
Suppose if you decided e.g. you had a 75% confidence that pathogens explained>=30% of Alzheimer's disease cases. What would this resolve to?
How about a 50% confidence it explains 50% of cases?
If it is multiple causes and one of them is a pathogen, but it is not the main one, how does this resolve?