2
Does any pathogen (virus, bacteria, prion, etc.) cause Alzheimer's disease?
13
closes 2029
81%
chance

Resolves to my credence in 2030.

"The infectious hypothesis proposes that a pathogen (virus, bacteria, prion, etc.) is the root cause of AD [2]. The hypothesis is supported by evidence that some pathogens, such as herpesviruses and certain bacterial species, are found more commonly in AD patients." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7660461/#:~:text=The%20infectious%20hypothesis%20proposes%20that,more%20commonly%20in%20AD%20patients.

Close date updated to 2030-01-01 4:59 am

Feb 9, 8:05am: Is a pathogen (virus, bacteria, prion, etc.) the root cause of Alzheimer's disease? → Is a pathogen (virus, bacteria, prion, etc.) a root cause of Alzheimer's disease?

Feb 9, 8:11am: Is a pathogen (virus, bacteria, prion, etc.) a root cause of Alzheimer's disease? → Does any pathogen (virus, bacteria, prion, etc.) cause Alzheimer's disease?

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Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingbought Ṁ2 of NO

Imagine writing this paper and not going much deeper into the “flat line” (can’t imagine, nor can anyone who’s good with statistics or data in any capacity)

For women only:

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingbought Ṁ3 of NO

Abysmal statistics; incomplete literature

But probably true (shingles vax has been shown to inhibit beta h-viruses more generally; and female brains already show very different responses to dementia risk factors)

Not sure why it takes four people to write a mediocre paper (epidemiology has the talent depth of the average car wash ) but conclusions look sound

NLeseul avatar
NLeseul

@LachlanMunro Relevant link from that Tweet: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.05.23.23290253v1

Causal evidence that herpes zoster vaccination prevents a proportion of dementia cases
Causal evidence that herpes zoster vaccination prevents a proportion of dementia cases
The root causes of dementia are still largely unclear, and the medical community lacks highly effective preventive and therapeutic pharmaceutical agents for dementia despite large investments into their development. There is growing interest in the question if infectious agents play a role in the de…

Basically they compared people born a week before versus a week after a cutoff date for eligibility for that vaccine, and found a 20%-ish reduction in dementia diagnosis in the latter group. (Still pending peer review.)

ScroogeMcDuck avatar
Scrooge McDuck

Suppose if you decided e.g. you had a 75% confidence that pathogens explained>=30% of Alzheimer's disease cases. What would this resolve to?

How about a 50% confidence it explains 50% of cases?

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingbought Ṁ10 of YES
egroj avatar
JAAMbought Ṁ15 of NO

I think main cause it's probably going to be diabetes type 3, but there might be multiple causes

egroj avatar
JAAM

If it is multiple causes and one of them is a pathogen, but it is not the main one, how does this resolve?

DismalScientist avatar
DismalScientist

@egroj Thanks for the question. Thinking about it further, I think it will be difficult to say which is the “root cause”, so I changed the question to just a cause. If anyone needs a refund, let me know.

DismalScientist avatar
DismalScientist

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