Does any pathogen (virus, bacteria, prion, etc.) cause Alzheimer's disease?
21
271
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2029
67%
chance

Resolves to my credence in 2030.

"The infectious hypothesis proposes that a pathogen (virus, bacteria, prion, etc.) is the root cause of AD [2]. The hypothesis is supported by evidence that some pathogens, such as herpesviruses and certain bacterial species, are found more commonly in AD patients." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7660461/#:~:text=The%20infectious%20hypothesis%20proposes%20that,more%20commonly%20in%20AD%20patients.

Close date updated to 2030-01-01 4:59 am

Feb 9, 8:05am: Is a pathogen (virus, bacteria, prion, etc.) the root cause of Alzheimer's disease? → Is a pathogen (virus, bacteria, prion, etc.) a root cause of Alzheimer's disease?

Feb 9, 8:11am: Is a pathogen (virus, bacteria, prion, etc.) a root cause of Alzheimer's disease? → Does any pathogen (virus, bacteria, prion, etc.) cause Alzheimer's disease?

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bought Ṁ2 of NO

Imagine writing this paper and not going much deeper into the “flat line” (can’t imagine, nor can anyone who’s good with statistics or data in any capacity)

For women only:

bought Ṁ3 of NO

Abysmal statistics; incomplete literature

But probably true (shingles vax has been shown to inhibit beta h-viruses more generally; and female brains already show very different responses to dementia risk factors)

Not sure why it takes four people to write a mediocre paper (epidemiology has the talent depth of the average car wash ) but conclusions look sound

Suppose if you decided e.g. you had a 75% confidence that pathogens explained>=30% of Alzheimer's disease cases. What would this resolve to?

How about a 50% confidence it explains 50% of cases?

bought Ṁ10 of YES
bought Ṁ15 of NO

I think main cause it's probably going to be diabetes type 3, but there might be multiple causes

If it is multiple causes and one of them is a pathogen, but it is not the main one, how does this resolve?

@egroj Thanks for the question. Thinking about it further, I think it will be difficult to say which is the “root cause”, so I changed the question to just a cause. If anyone needs a refund, let me know.