Is herpes a causative factor in dementia?
9
113
Ṁ741
2090
75%
chance

Resolve to scientific consensus whenever that is reached. Will resolve conservatively (i.e. lean towards leaving it open for another year).

Any herpes virus

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29488144/

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.05.23.23290253v1

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predicts YES

Tumblr post I wrote about the current research surrounding this topic:
https://www.tumblr.com/astralarya/736730872361910272/overwhelming-evidence-for-a-major-role-for-herpes

"causative factor" meaning that it can have downstream effects leading to dementia, or that most dementia is caused by it?

The former, although it'd have to be at least, let's say, >2% of dementia cases, so that a .00001% increase doesn't count. (obviously I didn't think too hard about this market. feedback on better criteria welcome!)

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