Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if the spot price of gold reaches $2,500 USD per troy ounce at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC. Resolution will be determined by checking the price on major gold trading platforms including COMEX (Commodity Exchange Inc.), the London OTC market, or the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The resolution source will be the highest price recorded on any of these exchanges during the specified period.

Background

Gold set a new all-time high of $5,593.00 in early January 2026, with the price reaching a historic high of $5,595.92 by the end of January before correcting to $4,401.72. As of mid-March 2026, gold is trading around $5,033 per ounce. Gold jumped 63% in 2025, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, falling real interest rates, and central bank efforts to diversify away from the dollar.

Considerations

The $2,500 threshold is significantly below current price levels and represents a decline of roughly 50% from recent highs. UBS has set a price target of $6,200 for March, June, and September 2026, with expectations for gold to modestly pull back around $5,900 by the end of 2026. J.P. Morgan forecasts prices to average $5,055/oz by the final quarter of 2026. For this market to resolve YES, gold would need to experience a severe correction well below analyst consensus expectations.

This description was generated by AI.