Will a real money alternative to manifold appear before 2025?
Dec 31

If there is a platform that allows anyone to create markets for real money before 2025 โ€” it's YES. If no โ€” NO ๐Ÿคทโ€โ™‚๏ธ

Get แน€600 play money
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bought แน€30 YES

Does it not already exist? I think https://polymarket.com/ is one of the examples, but I believe that there are more prediction markets out there...

@MarnixVreugdenhil imo, polymarket doesn't have an obvious way for you to create your own market, does it?

bought แน€10 YES

it was manifold all along!

@Odoacre can you withdraw you manifold money? ๐Ÿ‘€

@DimaHorshkov have you heard of the pivot ?

@Odoacre never ๐Ÿ‘€ what's this?

@Odoacre maybe the real alternative was the Manifold we've been using all along

@DimaHorshkov if I understand correctly, even once withdrawals are set up, you cannot withdraw the money you deposit, you can only withdraw the money you get from markets. With the fees, you can't just deposit $100 and immediately withdraw $100 - you have to create a market, resolve it and then withdraw whatever is left after the fees are clawed from it.

@BrunoParga oh, that's interesting! Thanks for sharing! It seems like you'd have a lot of friction in order to withdraw your money, and afaik there's still no way to withdraw your winnings like on Polymarket. Polymarket is not a real money alternative to Manifold though, since they don't provide people with an opportunity to create their own markets.

@Odoacre interesting! thanks for sharing! Can't wait to see what they prepared

@DimaHorshkov I don't think it'll ever be possible for a marketplace to have both the ability to withdraw your winnings like Polymarket and to create any question you want like Manifold. That combination makes money laundering easy.

(Never mind question quality.)

@BrunoParga could you elaborate this money laundering stuff for me, please? I don't get how it might work.

@DimaHorshkov sure thing! Let's say you have dirty money - from extortion, for example. You need clean money, that can't be tracked to your illegal activity. Let's say you have an associate. You deposit money to Manifold, get mana. Your associate creates a market, you trade on it, they resolve it in a way that's favorable to you. Now you have prize points, you withdraw them to your bank account. To anyone looking, this money doesn't come from extortion, it comes from Manifold โ€“ it's clean money.

There are costs to doing this, but there are costs to any money laundering, so in that scenario it might be worth going this route.

@BrunoParga rightttt! Appreciate your time and answer!

But how do you deposit those money on Manifold if they require you to enter your banking card details, meaning you can't deposit with cash?

@DimaHorshkov this requirement is due precisely to money laundering concerns. But it isn't perfect, I think.

@DimaHorshkov you just need a credit card to buy mana, you only need bank account and verification to take money out.

@Odoacre right, to take money out. But how would you get money on your bank account to buy Mana on Manifold?

nvm I think I got the logic. you buy mana for credit money, then you win, repay the credit & enjoy profit

@DimaHorshkov my point was that the money does not have to come from your account. You can buy prepaid credit cards for cash

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