Will any gulf-state make a side-deal with Iran to avoid further attacks?

Question

Any deal that could be easily perceived as "against the interests of the USA" will be considered. These include but are not limited to:
- Kicking out USA military personnel from local bases
- Temporarily restricting US operations in said bases
- Restricting airspace access to the USA
- Agreeing to only sell oil in Yuan for the duration of the conflict

The deal must:
1) Offer a concrete non-aggression guarantee by Iran
2) Sideline the USA*
3) Be publicly acknowledged by both sides

*A deal between the USA and Iran that happens to help conditions for all the gulf-states will not be considered. (That said, I can see a world where Bahrain and Iran strike a deal and Trump insists it's his deal cause he's the dealmaker... I would consider this still sidelines the USA if it clearly favours Bahrain only.)

If the war ends before any gulf-state reaches such an agreement, this will resolve NO.

I will not bet on this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 40% chance (9 traders, as of Apr 6, 2026).