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When will a fully autonomous app/site upgrade outperform in an A/B test
0
Ṁ650
2030
July 1, 2028
20%
2026
20%
2027
20%
2028
20%
2029
20%
>=2030

This resolves positive when a credible public report describes a fully autonomous upgrade to an app or website of a company worth more than $100M that outperforms the previous version under an A/B test or similarly rigorous measurement. I will try to resolve to when the upgrade occurred, rather than when the report was published. "Fully autonomous" means the upgrade was designed, implemented, tested, and deployed by automated systems; human involvement is limited to setting up the system and requesting an upgrade.

  • Update 2026-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The performance metric will be determined by whatever metric the company chooses to measure performance in their A/B test, not by any specific predefined metric.

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"Performs" by what metric?

@ChurlishGambit by whatever metric they choose to measure performance

@ChurlishGambit Feel free to create a derivative market on whether that will be the chosen metric, but yes

@DavidJohnston sorry thought someone else made this market, didn't mean to be blowing up your notifications lol

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