Resolves positively if, by 2024-06-31, either Cruise or Waymo permit anyone physically located in San Francisco to order ride-hailing services. Any subsection of SF counts - it doesn't have to permit you to access all or any combination of neighborhoods. The important criteria is that, with the exception of common-sense restrictions (i.e., no smoking or other minor filtering mechanisms), anyone can order a Waymo or Cruise car.
Public access similar to Uber/Lyft/Bird/Lime would resolve positively.
Arb Opportunity: https://manifold.markets/LaurenM/will-anyone-be-able-to-take-a-waymo
I think it's worth noting that Waymo already operates throughout San Francisco, my thinking is that the only reason this hasn't resolved "yes" yet is that there's still a waitlist.
Compare their site's text about Phoenix:
Download the app and create an account to get started.
With the text about San Francisco:
Download the app, create an account, and we’ll send you an invite code to get started with when it’s your turn to ride.
If the SF text is changed to match the Phoenix text before the end date, (and the app's behavior matches the website's claim) I would expect to resolve this as 'YES'