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MANIFOLD
My current relationship lasts >6 months (Oct 7th - April 7th)
30
Ṁ866Ṁ20k
resolved Apr 7
Resolved
YES

Resolution Criteria

  • Market resolves YES if me and my current (as of October 7th 2024) partner are still dating as of April 7th, 2025, at 23:59 UTC

  • Market resolves NO if either party confirms that the relationship has permanently ended before the resolution date.

  • Temporary breaks followed by reconciliation will not trigger a NO resolution.

  • Resolution will be based on personal confirmation from both parties regarding relationship status. In the event on a disagreement if we are still dating, market resolves as NO.

  • In the case where either party revokes consent to having a market predicting this event, market will resolve as current probability.

Note

  • Both parties pre-commit to not participate in trading on this market.

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Two years today! I should have been more optimistic and chosen a longer horizon at the start

Congrats!!!

Dear Relationship Stockholders,

We'd like to thank you for investing in us, and the time has come to reap the rewards. We'd like to thank especially J for market making, Dennis for his large early angel investment, and all the NO holders for subsidising demand.

Yours,

David and Iwona

@David549 wondering if walter bloomerberg should have tweeted about this market

Hello Traders!

We're moving in together in a few days. I guess it's possible I could find a way to mess it up over the next week, but so far so good

@David549 <3

Hello traders! We're in the process of moving into a place together. Adjust your bets accordingly.

Happy trading!

bought Ṁ80 NO

@NicholasMarsh subsidies too good 💸💸

I have since learned that resolving markets to N/A is undesirable, so going forward if in the unlikely case neither me nor my partner no longer consents to having a market on this, market will resolve to current probability at time of closing instead of N/A.

Obviously I don’t know you but I believe this market is overvalued based on priors:

Annual breakup rate for people who’ve dated for less than a year is 80%ish and post Valentine’s Day through March is peak breakup season.

@EmilyConn feel free to bet NO if you think that's the case?

bought Ṁ50 NO

90% too high considering I never even met them? curious

@AtomicTheory On priors I'd make the same wager if I didn't already promise I wouldn't

bought Ṁ1,878 YES

i trust this man

@DennisAkar you will be made whole my friend