My current relationship lasts >6 months (Oct 7th - April 7th)
Basic
17
Ṁ9169
Apr 7
77%
chance

Resolution Criteria

  • Market resolves YES if me and my current (as of October 7th 2024) partner are still dating as of April 7th, 2025, at 23:59 UTC

  • Market resolves NO if either party confirms that the relationship has permanently ended before the resolution date.

  • Temporary breaks followed by reconciliation will not trigger a NO resolution.

  • Resolution will be based on personal confirmation from both parties regarding relationship status. In the event on a disagreement if we are still dating, market resolves as NO.

  • In the case where either party revokes consent to having a market predicting this event, market will resolve as current probability.

Note

  • Both parties pre-commit to not participate in trading on this market.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

I have since learned that resolving markets to N/A is undesirable, so going forward if in the unlikely case neither me nor my partner no longer consents to having a market on this, market will resolve to current probability at time of closing instead of N/A.

Obviously I don’t know you but I believe this market is overvalued based on priors:

Annual breakup rate for people who’ve dated for less than a year is 80%ish and post Valentine’s Day through March is peak breakup season.

@EmilyConn feel free to bet NO if you think that's the case?

bought Ṁ50 NO

90% too high considering I never even met them? curious

@AtomicTheory On priors I'd make the same wager if I didn't already promise I wouldn't

bought Ṁ1,878 YES

i trust this man

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