Another election question https://manifold.markets/Dave_9000ish/will-jacob-zumas-new-mk-party-get-a?r=RGF2ZV85MDAwaXNo

Two polls put current EFF support at ~15% (https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/733999/south-african-2024-election-predicted-to-reshape-political-landscape/)

In 2019, they got 44/400 seats or ~11% of the vote. At the time, their final election rally was at Orlando Stadium which has a capacity of 40000 which they packed. https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2019-05-05-tshela-thupa-rally-let-the-red-flag-fly-high-malema-salutes-eff-election-campaign-at-orlando-stadium/?utm_source=dm-app&utm_medium=link

Their most recent major rally was at FNB Stadium with a capacity of 90000 https://ewn.co.za/2023/07/30/in-pics-eff-celebrates-10-years-with-packed-stadium. While the funds for this came from an unusual political windfall, it is almost always in their interests to maximise displays of support so that they can attract additional voters. If anything, this should give us confidence their support base has not shrunk since 2019 & they will very likely receive at least 10% of the vote in 2024.

In 2019 they got 10%. They tend to poll above 10%. I don't see why they'd get less than 10%?

@moyamo most likely. I'm hopeful they go backwards though

So much uncertainly around polls.