Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to YES if, in any of the calendar years from 2026 through 2036, the annual percentage return of Bitcoin (BTC) is greater than the annual percentage return of the S&P 500. Otherwise, if the S&P 500 outperforms or matches Bitcoin in every single one of these ten calendar years, the market will resolve to NO.

• Bitcoin Return Calculation: Calculated as the percentage change in the price of BTC-USD from the close of the last day of the previous year (December 31) to the close of December 31 of the target year. The primary source of truth for BTC-USD pricing will be Yahoo Finance (BTC-USD).

  S&P 500 Return Calculation: Calculated as the annual percentage return of the S&P 500 Total Return Index (which accounts for reinvested dividends). The primary source of truth will be Yahoo Finance (^SP500TR). If total return data is unavailable or disputed, the standard S&P 500 Index Yahoo Finance (^GSPC) will be used as a fallback. The return is measured from the closing price on the last trading day of the previous year to the closing price on the last trading day of the target year.

• Early Resolution: This market may resolve to YES early as soon as the final trading data for any individual calendar year in the window (e.g., at the end of 2027) confirms that Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 for that year. It will resolve to NO if either BTC no longer exists, or after the ten-year period has elapsed and Bitcoin has failed to outperform the S&P 500 in all ten years.