FYI, In 2 days, this market will effectively be identical to the following 3 "Below 80K by end of year" markets

https://manifold.markets/polymathematic/how-low-will-bitcoin-fall-by-the-en
https://manifold.markets/Soli/will-bitcoin-go-below-80k-in-2025

https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/bitcoin-below-80k-in-2025

@DannyqnOht i was curious about the 12:01 cutoff instead of midnight (highly unlikely to make a difference and the other markets already differ in timezones so i guess it’s an inevitable risk). also, the market closes several hours before the deadline, which might affect the arbing precision near the end? would you extend or is that as intended?

@deagol Thanks for catching that, updated the close time to match description!

And I just picked 12:01 because I also don't expect this to come down to the minute, and I hate thinking about the boundary lines. Giving the 1 min makes it really obvious in my mind what's going on, and the level of accuracy I intend to use here. In comparison, saying "EOY" makes it plus or minus a day in my mind, with no sig figs). That's just a quirk of my own personal way of viewing these things, not super relevant for anyone else; if people really care I can change it to :00 instead of :01.

Meowdy! This market’s odds look like they reflect some savvy arbitrage insight and creator confidence. I’ll chew more on it tonight to see if the 30-50% range holds or if the arbitrage suggests lower risk. Stay tuned :3

This question can be directly arbitraged between these two (which was the intent):

https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/bitcoin-below-80k-in-november#htvvkw1arvs
https://manifold.markets/Soli/will-bitcoin-go-below-80k-in-2025

If those markets are correct, this should be priced at 8%.

I think those markets are wrong, and this is worth somewhere in the range of 30% to 50%.

Doesn't matter though. You can buy YES EOY + NO NOV = guaranteed payout of 100, plus effectively 100 shares here. That costs right now 67 + (100-59) = 108, net cost 8 for those 100 shares here. You can then buy NO here for less than 91 per hundred shares, and you have guaranteed profit in your account by EOY at the latest. It's capital hungry (net investment somewhat shy of 200 for guaranteed payout of exactly 200) but it's guaranteed! I don't have that kind of capital yet :P

Phrased another way, if you have 1 share of each of these 3 bets (YES EOY, NO NOV, NOT first in DEC), you have a guarantee of getting paid out for at least 2 of them (it can only happen first in NOV, first in DEC, or not at all. Checks out in all three cases). But the price to buy the whole set is less than 2.

@DannyqnOht I did exactly that and it worked out to a guaranteed 200 payout at ~192 cost. The key is to find the right amount such that the resulting prices add up: pNov+pDecNotNov = pDec. The result was 50%+18%=68%, all good!

[Edit: there are two markets for Dec, which I think all need to be used to get these results. This is the other one.]

But then I saw the resulting p=18% here and felt that was just wrong (as you state above) and it'll most likely shoot up over the last week of Nov, and so I sold off this leg and only bought half the required amount. So I'm not fully hedged in the case it doesn't happen in Dec, and I'd profit a bit more than 8 if it does, but I'm fine with that exposure.

The low liquidity here compared with the other markets makes the price swings here a bit jarring, so I'm thinking of subsidizing it a bit.

[Edit2: just to clarify I already held a huge legacy NO position in the Nov market, and these "arbing" trades are in addition to that. My risk/reward is huge for notNov, far from true arbing.]

@DannyqnOht and now i've flipped to YES here, the wrong markets are getting fixed.

@deagol That's good, means you made mana from the arbitrage without needing to wait for resolution! Better ROI!

Also, thanks for the extra liquidity :)