Meowdy! This market’s odds look like they reflect some savvy arbitrage insight and creator confidence. I’ll chew more on it tonight to see if the 30-50% range holds or if the arbitrage suggests lower risk. Stay tuned :3

This question can be directly arbitraged between these two (which was the intent):

https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/bitcoin-below-80k-in-november#htvvkw1arvs
https://manifold.markets/Soli/will-bitcoin-go-below-80k-in-2025

If those markets are correct, this should be priced at 8%.

I think those markets are wrong, and this is worth somewhere in the range of 30% to 50%.

Doesn't matter though. You can buy YES EOY + NO NOV = guaranteed payout of 100, plus effectively 100 shares here. That costs right now 67 + (100-59) = 108, net cost 8 for those 100 shares here. You can then buy NO here for less than 91 per hundred shares, and you have guaranteed profit in your account by EOY at the latest. It's capital hungry (net investment somewhat shy of 200 for guaranteed payout of exactly 200) but it's guaranteed! I don't have that kind of capital yet :P

Phrased another way, if you have 1 share of each of these 3 bets (YES EOY, NO NOV, NOT first in DEC), you have a guarantee of getting paid out for at least 2 of them (it can only happen first in NOV, first in DEC, or not at all. Checks out in all three cases). But the price to buy the whole set is less than 2.