Resolution criteria
This market resolves based on Bitcoin's closing price through December 31, 2025, as reported on major exchanges. Each answer resolves YES if Bitcoin's price falls to or below that threshold by year-end, and NO if it remains above. For example, if Bitcoin closes at $87,500, both "$90,000 or less" and "$85,000 or less" resolve YES, while "Stays Above $90,000" resolves NO. The market resolves inclusively to the lowest price tier Bitcoin reaches by December 31, 2025.
Background
Bitcoin peaked above $126,000 in early October 2025 before experiencing one of its sharpest pullbacks of the year. As of November 17, 2025, Bitcoin is trading around $95,500–$96,000. A mix of fading Fed rate-cut expectations, heavy spot ETF outflows, and profit-taking by long-term holders pushed BTC from its October all-time high near $126K down to the mid-$90Ks. Bitcoin hit $94,491.22 on November 14, marking its lowest level since May 7.
Considerations
Analyst forecasts diverge significantly. Some analysts expect BTC to head toward the $120K–$130K range by late 2025, with predictions of reaching $114,500 by end of November, while other models forecast Bitcoin ending November at $85,276, representing a 21.3% decline from month-start. Some analysts note that fading Fed-cut hopes, $1.1B in ETF outflows, and over $600M in leveraged liquidations have already erased Bitcoin's 2025 gains, and the correction could persist well into mid-2026 if policy and regulation don't stabilize. Institutional adoption remains a key variable—Harvard University tripled its Bitcoin ETF holdings to $443M via BlackRock's IBIT, reflecting institutional confidence despite recent volatility.
Update 2025-11-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution is based on the lowest price Bitcoin reaches at any point through December 31, 2025, not just the closing price on December 31st. If Bitcoin dips below a threshold at any time during the period (even if it recovers by year-end), that threshold resolves YES.
Example: If Bitcoin drops to $87,500 on December 5 but recovers to $100,000 by December 31, "$90,000 or less" resolves YES and "Stays above $90,000" resolves NO.
The "Stays above $90,000" option has been resolved N/A.
Update 2025-11-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Price source for resolution: The market will use either Coinbase (https://www.coinbase.com/price/bitcoin) or the price shown when searching "bitcoin price" on Google (https://www.google.com/search?q=bitcoin+price), unless there is a compelling reason to use a different source.
Update 2025-11-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on any timezone where it is still 2025. If Bitcoin closes under a threshold level anywhere in the world while it is still the year 2025 in that location, that threshold will resolve YES.
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@deagol if it closes under one of these levels anywhere in the world that it’s still the year 2025, I will resolve it yes.
@deagol I'll default to either coinbase (https://www.coinbase.com/price/bitcoin) or whatever comes up when I google "bitcoin price" (https://www.google.com/search?q=bitcoin+price) unless there's a compelling reason to consider something else.
@DannyqnOht ah, great question. it's not the ending price that matters to me, but any prices along the way. so if it drops to $87500 on December 5, for example, but recovers to $100,000 by the end of the year, this market would resolve NO for "stays above 90000", YES for "90000 or below", and NO for all other options as well. I didn't really think about it, but in that way the stays above 90k option isn't really necessary. I've NA'd it.