Will larceny/theft (including car theft) increase in San Francisco in 2024 compared to 2023?
Basic
13
Ṁ6686
resolved Jan 8
Resolved
NO

Data will come from Larceny/Theft category on https://www.sanfranciscopolice.org/stay-safe/crime-data/crime-dashboard for all neighborhoods on 2024-01-01.

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Inactive/unresponsive creator, resolving NO as per the data currently at the linked source:

@chrisjbillington sorry everyone! thank you Chris

predicted NO

@DannyOBrien No probs!

predicted NO

Resolution please @DannyOBrien

predicted YES

To clarify, this is comparing 2023 crime to 2024 crime, correct? So we won’t know for sure until 1/1/2025? (Trying to understand why this got bid down to almost 0, as if the question were already answered.)

@josharian No, as per the description, the creator is referring to publication dates in the title.

They mean to compare the annual crime data available on 2024-01-01, which pertains to 2023, to the data available on 2023-01-01, which pertained to 2022.

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington Huh. It only includes a single date in the description, which seems could be either the before or the after date. And that conflicts with the natural reading of the title.

predicted NO

@josharian The title is poorly written, yes. It's not that uncommon for data to be referred to by date of publication though, so that's a thing people sometimes do, and what the creator looks to be doing here. Though I agree it's not great in this case.

The close date of the market is about 24h from now which suggests (but doesn't prove) the creator had a sooner resolution in mind, and my reading of the description is that they will use that website as of that date (today) to resolve.

It actually looks like that the latest weekly update hasn't hit yet. Unlikely to make a difference, but if it did, then there'd be further arguing to do about whether the data on the site as of Jan 1st mattered, or the Jan 1st update - even if it hit a few days later. For posterity (a different mod than me better resolve this market since I'm invested), here's what the site looks like right now, which is 6pm Jan 1st in SF: