Will Joe Biden win the first debate against Donald Trump? (According to manifold)
➕
Plus
41
Ṁ5166
resolved Jun 28
Resolved
NO

I'll compare the probability in this market right before and right after the debate. If it increases I'll resolve yes.

Technicalities:

  • If it stays at the same number, I'll use the manifold API to get the exact numbers

  • If it still stays the same I'll resolve NO

  • If there is no debate I'll resolve NA

  • If it doesn't end up being a debate between Biden and Trump, the market will be about whoever the nominees are

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reposted

A reflection: One thing I didn't think about when making this market is the fact that Biden's chances dropped from both his lower chance of beating Trump and his lower chance of being the nominee.

45.6% according to the API, this will be the starting point

Wonder how relevant data from their past debates will turn out to be. Lotta water under the bridge since then.

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