What share of global energy will come from renewables (excluding nuclear)?
What share of global energy will come from renewables (excluding nuclear)?
9
660Ṁ13052101
13%
2023
16%
2024
22%
2025
42%
2030
63%
2040
81%
2050
83%
2075
88%
2100
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Resolved to the % of energy from hydropower + wind + solar + modern biofuels + other renewables for each year according to our world in data:
https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-consumption
(I will calculate the % base on the numbers in this graph)
Note that electricity was only about 20% of global energy use in 2022 (https://yearbook.enerdata.net/electricity/share-electricity-final-consumption.html)
Fusion does not count for this market.
If our world in data does not refresh their data I will propose and select another resolution source.
I will not trade in the market.
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bought Ṁ10 2100 NO1y
once again, almost no one appreciates how little of our global energy usage is even electrified to begin with, even though you explicitly called it out!
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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