Will the US attack Russia domestically by July 1st 2022?

Ṁ100Ṁ988

resolved Jul 21

Resolved

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Resolved according to my judgement. "Attack" means some sort of conventional, physical attack. "Domestically" means in areas stably controlled by Russia before Feb 20 2022 (so Moscow or Crimea). Am open to help operationalizing.

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That would certainly risk a nuclear escalation, which would render my M$ worthless.

That would certainly risk a nuclear escalation. Seems very unlikely unless in reprisal for an attack on a NATO member.

I bought No down to 5% - I'd go lower except I'm uncertain if US 'military advisors' (Green Beret types) would count. The US doesn't have the means to meaningfully project force in these areas and war would be bad for Biden in domestic politics.

I still have my normalcy bias, and July is too soon.

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