Will Russia attack another country by July 1st 2022?

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resolved Jul 21

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Resolved according to my judgement. Attack means a physical attack involving weapons. Has to be a country Russia is currently not engaged in hostilities in (so continued fighting in Ukraine or CAR don't count). Am open to help operationalizing. Feb 24, 11:08am: If it were obvious to me that Russia had paid mercenaries to attack another country, and Russia were in control of those mercenaries, I would count that.

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#🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war

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predictedNO

@DanielFilan Time to close?

predictedYES

@yngve Indeed, thanks for the reminder!

Strange, it says I have a loan of $0.

Imagine if Russia attacks Taiwan, lol

If it were obvious to me that Russia had paid mercenaries to attack another country, and Russia were in control of those mercenaries, I would count that.

Assuming mercenaries don't count.

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