53% chance. AXRP is the AI X-risk Research Podcast - found wherever podcasts are distributed, and transcripts available at axrp.net. So far, there have been 6 proper episodes of AXRP this year. Here is the download numbers for each one in the first 30 days, sorted by download count and without episode names attached: 3,524 2,420 1,473 1,249 981 959 Will any as-yet-unreleased episode of AXRP get >2,000 downloads this year? Notes: I'm asking about total downloads by the end of the year, not downloads in the first 30 days (altho most episodes get most of their downloads in that period). I'm talking about IAB downloads, not raw downloads. The distinction is explained here, but tl;dr it's trying to filter out spam/fake downloads. I am planning on releasing more episodes this year, but it's possible the pace will slow down as I work on my thesis.