Will a new episode of AXRP get >3,000 downloads in 2023?
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แน€1047
resolved Jan 1
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NO

AXRP is the AI X-risk Research Podcast - found wherever podcasts are distributed, and transcripts available at axrp.net. So far, there have been 6 proper episodes of AXRP this year. Here is the download numbers for each one in the first 30 days, sorted by download count and without episode names attached:

  • 3,524

  • 2,420

  • 1,473

  • 1,249

  • 981

  • 959

Will any as-yet-unreleased episode of AXRP get >3,000 downloads this year?

Notes:

  • I'm asking about total downloads by the end of the year, not downloads in the first 30 days (altho most episodes get most of their downloads in that period).

  • I'm talking about IAB downloads, not raw downloads. The distinction is explained here, but tl;dr it's trying to filter out spam/fake downloads.

  • I am planning on releasing more episodes this year, but it's possible the pace will slow down as I work on my thesis.

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predicted NO

Nope: out of those two, the max download number was 1,351.

predicted NO

New episode! https://axrp.net/episode/2023/11/26/episode-26-ai-governance-elizabeth-seger.html

See also https://manifold.markets/DanielFilan/will-a-new-episode-of-axrp-get-2000 and https://manifold.markets/DanielFilan/will-any-axrp-episode-released-in-2

Will a new episode of AXRP get >2,000 downloads in 2023?
53% chance. AXRP is the AI X-risk Research Podcast - found wherever podcasts are distributed, and transcripts available at axrp.net. So far, there have been 6 proper episodes of AXRP this year. Here is the download numbers for each one in the first 30 days, sorted by download count and without episode names attached: 3,524 2,420 1,473 1,249 981 959 Will any as-yet-unreleased episode of AXRP get >2,000 downloads this year? Notes: I'm asking about total downloads by the end of the year, not downloads in the first 30 days (altho most episodes get most of their downloads in that period). I'm talking about IAB downloads, not raw downloads. The distinction is explained here, but tl;dr it's trying to filter out spam/fake downloads. I am planning on releasing more episodes this year, but it's possible the pace will slow down as I work on my thesis.

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