What is the best way to structure a market to capture probabilities conditional on unlikely events?
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Create a market directly, resolve N/A with high probability
Resolve to a poll
Resolve to implied probability from separate markets on event and condition
Don’t create a market at all, polls are better suited to these questions

Interested in the community’s thoughts on the best way to run these markets. My use case was a market on Dean Phillips chance of winning the general conditional on getting the nomination, but it seems like there ought to be many use cases.

The problem with the direct market as I see it is that it locks up mana for a very high chance of an N/A result. Do manifold’s loans or some other mechanism overcome this in some way?

Suggestions for other answers welcome, as are links to related discussions

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Resolve to NA or, better yet, multiple option market, for your example:

  • Doesn't get nominated.

  • Gets nominated but doesn't win.

  • He wins.

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