What is the best way to structure a market to capture probabilities conditional on unlikely events?
6
27
Never closes
Create a market directly, resolve N/A with high probability
Resolve to a poll
Resolve to implied probability from separate markets on event and condition
Don’t create a market at all, polls are better suited to these questions
Interested in the community’s thoughts on the best way to run these markets. My use case was a market on Dean Phillips chance of winning the general conditional on getting the nomination, but it seems like there ought to be many use cases.
The problem with the direct market as I see it is that it locks up mana for a very high chance of an N/A result. Do manifold’s loans or some other mechanism overcome this in some way?
Suggestions for other answers welcome, as are links to related discussions
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Related questions
"The Market" 1 year: Will the average probability of this market be >50%?
37% chance
Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2035? (Experimental market structure; 99% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)
46% chance
Is asking a truthful superintelligence for a PROB the best way to resolve ambiguous markets?
72% chance
Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2035? (Experimental market structure; 90% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)
57% chance
Which markets will @ManifoldPolitics create as joint probability markets with the "control of government" market?
Will a market structure that incentivize betting on long term markets be found, by the end of May?
17% chance
Recommend market structures that incentivize betting on long term markets
Ṁ2,850 bounty
Do you approve the restrictions on the probability range on some markets ?
POLL
How to create a multiple-choice market with customised initial probabilities?
Ṁ500 bounty
How many participants does a manifold market need to become sufficiently predictive (80% probability of being right)?
POLL