Will GPT-5 top the LLMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboard within a month of its release?
12
702
2025
85%
chance

If it's clear GPT-5 will never be released for whatever reason, resolves N/A.

Otherwise starting from the first time it appears at all on the leaderboard, resolves YES if it hits the top spot, and NO if it does not.

Does not apply to any future versions that are also called "GPT 5-preview", just the first iteration to appear on the LLMSys leaderboard. If multiple appear at once (like Opus/Sonnet/Haiku), any of them count.

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