Will GPT-5 top the LLMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboard within a month of its release?
10
32
Ṁ575Ṁ300
2025
87%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If it's clear GPT-5 will never be released for whatever reason, resolves N/A.
Otherwise starting from the first time it appears at all on the leaderboard, resolves YES if it hits the top spot, and NO if it does not.
Does not apply to any future versions that are also called "GPT 5-preview", just the first iteration to appear on the LLMSys leaderboard. If multiple appear at once (like Opus/Sonnet/Haiku), any of them count.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
What will be true of OpenAI's next major LLM release (GPT-4.5 or GPT-5)?
Will GPT-4 be available to ChatGPT Free Users in 2024?
72% chance
Will Google mostly catch up to OpenAI in LLM quality and neutralize ChatGPT's lead by the end of 2024?
44% chance
Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at any point in 2024? (for 1 week)
33% chance
Will GPT5 be available in ChatGPT before June 30th 2024?
6% chance
Will GPT-4 become free on ChatGPT when OpenAI releases GPT-4.5/GPT-5?
67% chance
Will any LLM outrank GPT-4 by 150 Elo in LMSYS chatbot arena before 2025?
45% chance
Will an open-source LLM beat or match GPT-4 by the end of 2024?
64% chance
How many organizations will have released a GPT-4-level chatbot by the end of 2024?