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MANIFOLD
What will the margin of victory be in Vermont's Republican primary?
13
Ṁ810Ṁ7.4k
resolved Mar 6
100%98.4%
Haley +4-6
0.0%
Trump +8 or more
0.0%
Trump +6-8
0.0%
Trump +4-6
0.0%
Trump +2-4
0.1%
Trump +0-2
0.1%
Haley +0-2
1.3%
Haley +2-4
0.0%
Haley +6-8
0.0%
Haley +8 or more

Resolves based on NYT, exact vote proportions (no rounding). If there is an exact tie, rounds to the higher bucket (so Trump +2 resolves to Trump +2-4)

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I’m going to go ahead and resolve this +4-6. If more nonsense crops up I reserve the right to ask a mod to reresolve.

@DanMan314 dont worry I will ping you if the actual number end up being 3.99

The error got fixed. Haley now leads 50.2 to 45.9 in NYT

Unfortunately, it seems that Haley got a lead of 4% by less than a single vote.

@HthePenguin That's incredible! Any chance of more votes being counted? This might need to wait for the official results.

@HthePenguin More like 200 votes due to the Bristol error in NYT.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 No more votes counted, but given how close Haley is to 50 there could be a recount.

Why does NBC show different results than every other news org?

bought Ṁ500 YES

@PlasmaBallin There is a reporting error in NYT in Bristol. Haley’s lead is actually 200 more.

sold Ṁ8 YES

@riverwalk3 But it's not just NYT. WaPo and Politico are also behind.

@riverwalk3 As is AP

bought Ṁ43 YES

bought Ṁ10 YES

Perfectly balanced

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