The price of 1 ounce of silver to drop below $30 at any point before 31 December 2026 11:59pm CST

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the spot price of silver falls below $30.00 per troy ounce at any point before 11:59 PM CST on December 31, 2026. Resolution will be determined using the spot price from a major precious metals pricing source such as APMEX, COMEX futures, or MarketWatch. The market resolves NO if silver never touches below $30/oz during this period.

Background

Silver reached an all-time high of $121.67 on January 29, 2026, but has since experienced significant volatility. As of February 10, 2026, silver stood at $81.88 per ounce. Silver closed 2024 at $28.92 per ounce, meaning the metal has already traded near the $30 threshold within the past two months.

A supportive macroeconomic backdrop and forecasted strength in gold are expected to help limit downside risks for the silver price, even though heightened price volatility will remain a feature. However, jewelry demand is projected to fall for the second consecutive year, declining by over 9 percent in 2026 to its lowest level since 2020, as record-high prices are expected to curtail consumption.

Considerations

Silver exhibits extreme volatility compared to other precious metals. Silver dropped approximately 32% from late January to early February 2026, demonstrating the metal's susceptibility to sharp reversals. While silver prices can be more volatile than gold prices, the likelihood of it fully reversing back to the sub-$50 range is considered low by some analysts, though this does not preclude a move below $30. The market has experienced a $30+ swing in just weeks, making a sub-$30 print possible despite current bullish sentiment.

This description was generated by AI.