Closing one day before the election, will resolve once the official results are released.
Resolution criteria
The market resolves YES if Fidesz–KDNP wins the most seats in the Hungarian parliamentary election on April 12, 2026. Resolution will be based on official results published by the Hungarian National Election Office (Nemzeti Választási Iroda). The market closes one day before the election on April 11, 2026.
Background
This election represents the most serious challenge to Orbán's political reign, an era that has stretched across two decades of dominance. Long-time regime insider Péter Magyar broke with Orbán in 2024 and founded a rival party, Tisza.
Polling shows a divided landscape. Tisza currently has an 8-12 percentage-point lead over Fidesz among decided voters, though pro-government pollsters show a Fidesz lead, and many voters remain undecided. Hungary's 199-seat parliament is elected through a hybrid system: 106 MPs are chosen in single-member constituencies on a first-past-the-post basis, while the remaining 93 seats are distributed proportionally from national party lists. The structure tends to reward larger parties.
Considerations
The opposition Tisza Party needs to win by around 3–5 points in the national vote in order to get a majority in the Assembly, due to recent constituency boundary changes. Large differences between government- and non-government-affiliated pollsters represent a new phenomenon in Hungarian politics, with political scientist Gábor Török suggesting the differences were 'unexplainable on research grounds'.
Update 2026-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Edge case resolutions:
If the election is delayed, the market close date will be adjusted accordingly
Resolution will be based on results announced on the day election results are counted and released
The market will not adjudicate claims of election manipulation
If there is a situation involving regime change or deposition before official results are released, the market will resolve N/A
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People are also trading
NO @ 15%. TISZA leads Fidesz by 13-21pp across independent polls. Median projects TISZA winning 138-142 seats in the 199-seat parliament — a potential two-thirds supermajority. Even accounting for 2022-style polling errors (~10pp Fidesz outperformance), TISZA's margin is large enough to survive. The structural Fidesz advantage in single-member districts requires only a 3-5pp TISZA lead to overcome, and most polls show them well beyond that. The Tusványos leak hurt TISZA but not enough to close a 20pp gap in the final days. The cycle continues.
How does this resolve if elections are delayed or canceled?
How does this resolve in case of obvious results manipulation? What if the Orban admin fakes a win, gets deposed by populus or military and a new administration takes its place?
@tobiasscheuer these are some good questions.
If it gets delayed, we simply change the date.
We will take the results that are announced on the day the election results are counted and released. I would say it's beyond the scope of this market to decide on what counts as manipulation
I think we just mark it as N.A. In this situation
Does that seem fair?