Closing one day before the election, will resolve once the official results are released.

Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if Fidesz–KDNP wins the most seats in the Hungarian parliamentary election on April 12, 2026. Resolution will be based on official results published by the Hungarian National Election Office (Nemzeti Választási Iroda). The market closes one day before the election on April 11, 2026.

Background

This election represents the most serious challenge to Orbán's political reign, an era that has stretched across two decades of dominance. Long-time regime insider Péter Magyar broke with Orbán in 2024 and founded a rival party, Tisza.

Polling shows a divided landscape. Tisza currently has an 8-12 percentage-point lead over Fidesz among decided voters, though pro-government pollsters show a Fidesz lead, and many voters remain undecided. Hungary's 199-seat parliament is elected through a hybrid system: 106 MPs are chosen in single-member constituencies on a first-past-the-post basis, while the remaining 93 seats are distributed proportionally from national party lists. The structure tends to reward larger parties.

Considerations

The opposition Tisza Party needs to win by around 3–5 points in the national vote in order to get a majority in the Assembly, due to recent constituency boundary changes. Large differences between government- and non-government-affiliated pollsters represent a new phenomenon in Hungarian politics, with political scientist Gábor Török suggesting the differences were 'unexplainable on research grounds'.