MANIFOLD
Will the lithium carbonate spot price exceed $25,000 per metric ton on April 1, 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ130
Apr 1
63%
chance

Resolves YES if the lithium carbonate (Li2CO3) spot price on April 1, 2026, as reported by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange or Fastmarkets, is strictly above $25,000 per metric ton. This threshold is near the expected breakeven price for Western lithium producers and reflects market uncertainty following Zimbabwe's export ban on lithium concentrates, which removed about 8% of global supply. The export suspension has already caused price spikes in early 2026, with prices rallying from around $21,000/t to above $26,000/t in late February. The market will resolve based on official spot price publications on the settlement date. Prices must be spot lithium carbonate prices; lithium hydroxide or other lithium chemicals do not count.

Zimbabwe's export ban removes significant supply from global lithium market.

Source: Article

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