Will the seaborne lithium carbonate price be above $18,000/t on June 30, 2027?

Question

This market resolves YES if the battery-grade lithium carbonate seaborne spot price (CIF China/Japan/Korea) is above 18,000 USD/t on June 30, 2027, otherwise NO. If no price is published that day, the most recent prior published price is used.

YES if: the price is strictly above 18,000 USD/t. NO if: the price is at or below 18,000 USD/t.

Resolution sources (priority order):

Fastmarkets battery-grade lithium carbonate, CIF China/Japan/Korea

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence seaborne lithium carbonate assessment

S&P Global Commodity Insights seaborne lithium carbonate price

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 47% chance (2 traders, as of Nov 3, 2026).

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