I have hypothesis russia is up to no good in Siberia and arctic, allowing methane leaks to accelrating the climate change and warming to melt ice caps and access land and the resources, adding warm water ports. Help me define it better, it is the working theory. Like pipeline leak back in 2020 or whatever, what are they getting up to there? Incompetence or maybe the accelerationists.
Double points of the Elon is involved.
Evidence comes out by 2030, market is resolving to the yes, if none, no.
1,000Is this market about intent or effect?
If it's about intent, it's extremely difficult to prove intent, especially in politics. I don't expect what we know 5 years later to be significantly different from today.
If it's about effect, it's not clear what's considered as baseline. It's obvious that preventing climate change isn't high on priority list but what exactly needs to be proven here remains unclear to me.
Maybe a more precise title, given the description, would be "Will there be confirmed reputable evidence by 2030 that the Russian government is intentionally attempting to accelerate global warming?"
To clarify, are you counting scenarios where a few members of the government know about and are doing it, but most of the government, including Putin at the top, don't know or don't care that it's happening, without participating themselves?