Will I get my life together in the next two weeks? (Prop bets)
11
225แน€1394
May 7
35%
Run every day
72%
Score a 100 on my next math quiz
32%
Study at least 50 hours
39%
Submit all assignments >12 hours before they're due.
54%
Sleep before 1am and wake up before 8AM on more than 10/14 days.
39%
Write three drafts of posts for my upcoming Substack
33%
Get my app into deployment
40%
Finalize my team for the company I'm working on this summer
39%
Get my screen time below 5hrs/day

I have been off track with many of my goals lately. I've found that making these markets has motivated me to work harder on my goals, ever since making my market on my 5k time. To help motivate myself, I will buy 100 mana of YES on everything, even if I think the price is bad or know I will lose. Options are not linked. This market closes on Wednesday, May 7 at midnight.


Relevant information:

Running: My strava https://www.strava.com/athletes/45805350 I haven't run every day for a two week period for years.

My math quiz grades: 4/5 of the quizzes I've taken have been perfect scores. These quizzes are generally not difficult: if I put in the work to study, I can most likely achieve a perfect scores. The quiz is on Wednesday, Apr. 30


Study spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11crhOWL8Njr0l2UX2eh-UY-I6UYJcEnY6LNwHWflSA8/edit?usp=sharing

I've studied <10 hours for the last 6 weeks, but finals are close, so I should step it up. I should be able to do this

Assignments >24hrs: I literally think that I have done this three times since the beginning of the semester 12 weeks ago (~50 assignments), but this is easily doable. I probably only have ~5 assignments in the next two weeks.

Sleep before 1am and wake up before 8AM on more than 10/14 days: I have done this on ~10% of days in the past, but obviously since I am putting this here I am making more of an effort to do this for the next two weeks. Whether I do this is also tracked in the spraedsheet linked above.

Substack: One of the posts is mostly done, but I haven't put that much work into finishing it. Each post is probably takes me ~6 hours to finish a draft for.

App into deployment: My app is almost done, but I need to deploy it. This can definitely be done in the next two weeks if I spend ~30-40 hours on it, but I keep putting it off.

Finalize the team: I'm in talks with a few people, but again, I need to hammer down and finalize my decision. I don't really know how to estimate how feasible this is: it might resolve NO even if I follow my goals faithfully, since it may be legitimate for me to delay longer.

Screen time: My screen time for the last week here I have data (Apr 13 - Apr 19) was 8h12m. I'm pretty sure I have not had a week of <5hrs since coming to college. I have taken some steps, though, like installing a new screen time app and removing Instagram and Reddit from my phone, which are my most-used apps

Spreadsheet will be updated every day before midnight.

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