At the time of opening this market: MM users give a 75% chance of indictment in 2023 but only a 39% chance of arrest in 2023 or 2024.

Both markets have more than 500 trades on and are relatively stable. Arrest follows indictment, so either people are unsure of the terms, OR they are ascribing a 36% chance of DT being indicted but avoiding arrest. I'd like to use this market to check that 36% gap.

This market will resolve at the end of 2023, or if DT flees the USA, or is arrested, whichever comes first.