Will Donald trump be indicted, but flee before arrest? [2023 limit]
6%
chance

At the time of opening this market: MM users give a 75% chance of indictment in 2023 but only a 39% chance of arrest in 2023 or 2024.

Both markets have more than 500 trades on and are relatively stable. Arrest follows indictment, so either people are unsure of the terms, OR they are ascribing a 36% chance of DT being indicted but avoiding arrest. I'd like to use this market to check that 36% gap.

This market will resolve at the end of 2023, or if DT flees the USA, or is arrested, whichever comes first.

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Bot avatar
CromlynGames avatar

Lots of trading. Has something happened I missed?

CromlynGames avatar
BTE avatar
CromlynGames avatar

@BTE darn. I didn't see that. Any honourable way to fold this duplicate market and release everyone's liquidity?

BTE avatar

@CromlynGames That would be cool! But no.

miscatulated avatar

I think if you turn yourself in after indictment, you can be released on your own recognizance and later show up for trial without being arrested in the interim.

CromlynGames avatar

@miscatulated I was assuming if you turn yourself in, the arrest occurs, even if you are released? But it seems it may vary with state, court, level of crime, so that may explain the gap.

BTE avatar

@miscatulated When you turn yourself in that is the arrest. You get booked (fingerprints and photos) and then yes they often release you on bond, but YOU ALWAYS GET ARRESTED WHEN YOU ARE INDICTED.

miscatulated avatar
miscatulated
is predicting NO at 7%

@BTE I think this may be true for criminal indictments in most/all jurisdictions? I am not a lawyer but googling it this morning seemed to imply it wasn’t strictly equivalent.

BTE avatar

@miscatulated It is different when you don't voluntarily appear because then you are committing additional crimes. But when you surrender yourself you are doing so to be arraigned and that is necessarily preceded by arrest and booking. There is no way around that. That is how jurisdiction is exercised.

miscatulated avatar
miscatulated
is predicting NO at 7%

@BTE My belief is that you can be taken into custody to be processed without being “arrested”. If you have a source that clarifies otherwise I’d love to see it, I was having a hard time finding concrete information.

BTE avatar

@miscatulated You are making a distinction that doesn’t exist. When you are booked (fingerprinted and photographed) that is the arrest. Nobody gets to avoid that. Getting handcuffed and perp walked is for high profile and violent criminals typically. It’s not a distinct part of the process though.

miscatulated avatar
miscatulated
is predicting NO at 7%

@BTE https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/25/11.304 Seems to imply some jurisdictions can issue a “summons” for you to appear in court instead of executing an arrest warrant.