Market definition (what we’re measuring)

This market tracks the change in the UNWEIGHTED average “headline” age of consent across U.S. jurisdictions. Each jurisdiction counts equally (not population-weighted).

Jurisdictions included (N = 56)

50 U.S. states + Washington, D.C. + the 5 inhabited U.S. territories (Puerto Rico, Guam, U.S. Virgin Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, American Samoa).

What number is used for each jurisdiction

Use the jurisdiction’s general / baseline age at which a person can legally consent to sexual intercourse (ignoring close-in-age “Romeo & Juliet” exceptions and special-category rules like teachers/guardians, etc.). If a jurisdiction has multiple age thresholds depending on circumstances, use the commonly cited “general” age-of-consent number.

Baseline (as of 2026-02-07)

Using the standard breakdown for states (30 states at 16, 7 at 17, 13 at 18) plus D.C. (16) and territories (PR 16, Guam 16, USVI 18, CNMI 16, American Samoa often summarized as 16–17 depending on statutory framing), the current unweighted average is approximately 16.63–16.64 years (about 16 years, 7–8 months).

State distribution reference:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_consent_in_the_United_States

Territory references (jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction consent law summaries):

https://apps.rainn.org/policy/compare/consent-laws.cfm

https://apps.rainn.org/policy/compare/consent-laws-export.cfm

Example of recent “raise the age” trend (Oklahoma)

Oklahoma enacted a change raising the age threshold (effective Nov 1, 2025 per annotated compilation), illustrating upward pressure over time:

https://www.okhouse.gov/posts/news-20250512_6

https://govt.westlaw.com/okjc/Document/NDD665E906D4511F0A366C5093241D383

Resolution (EOY 2035)

Compute the same 56-jurisdiction unweighted average using the laws IN FORCE at 2035-12-31 23:59:59 UTC.

• Resolve “Increase” if the 2035 average is strictly greater than the 2026 baseline average.

• Resolve “Decrease” if it is strictly less.

• Resolve “Stays the same” if it is exactly equal.

Forecast intuition (why this is a real question)

Downward moves are politically toxic; upward moves occasionally happen (e.g., WY/NM in 2018–2019, OK in 2025). The modal outcome is either “stays the same” or a small “increase” (one or a few jurisdictions changing by +1 or +2 years raises the average in discrete steps of 1/56 ≈ 0.0179).

Demographic “tipping point” pressure (low fertility / aging population) could plausibly increase political interest in pronatalism by the 2030s—but in the U.S. that pressure is overwhelmingly likely to route through pro-family subsidies and cultural signaling (childcare, tax credits, housing, parental leave, marriage incentives, etc.), not through lowering age-of-consent statutes. Dropping a consent age reads as “making adult–minor sex easier,” which is politically toxic across essentially all coalitions and doesn’t meaningfully solve fertility anyway (fertility is mostly driven by 25–35-year-old decisions, not teen legality). So the demographic story is more consistent with “stays the same” or a small “increase” from occasional tightening/raising in a few jurisdictions than with any “decrease.” My forecast: Increase 33% / Stays the same 65% / Decrease 2%.