At least one person dies from violence at a polling place on US Election Day (Nov. 5th, 2024).
Plus
95
Ṁ7443Nov 11
27%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will also count if they suffer injuries from such an event and die within the same week.
Adverse health events (e.g. heart attacks, overdoses, dehydration) not specifically related will not count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
During what months will someone be killed by US election-related political violence?
USA: Will there be fatal casualties of the Election Day?
20% chance
Will more than ten people be killed by Dec.1 in post-election group (or crowd) )violence in the United States?
33% chance
Will my voting place make any mistakes / rule violations on election day?
41% chance
How many Americans will die due to political violence in 2024?
Will there be violence in the US after the 2024 presidential election?
83% chance
Between Oct 1 2024 and Apr 1 2025, will US-election-related violence kill at least 100 Americans?
14% chance
Will the death of anyone up to 30 days before or after November 5 have a notable effect on the election?
22% chance
Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump die before the election but be on the ballot nonetheless?
3% chance
If Trump wins the US presidential election, will at least 100 people die in riots/protests against his presidency?
7% chance